Will a Big Earthquake Strike Tokyo?"

100 years have passed since the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake.

According to experts, there are two types of earthquakes in the southern Kanto region, including the Tokyo metropolitan area: M7-class intra-plate earthquakes, occurring roughly every 70-80 years, and M8-class inter-plate earthquakes, occurring approximately every 220 years.

Currently, the probability of an M7-class earthquake directly beneath Tokyo in the next 30 years is estimated to be 70%. According to government estimates published in 2013, in the worst-case scenario, there could be around 23,000 fatalities and economic damages of approximately 95 trillion yen.

Tokyo has been working on reducing densely populated areas with wooden houses as a preventive measure. However, considering the catastrophic damage caused by the 1923 earthquake, no level of preparedness can guarantee complete safety.

In an instant, Tokyo was devastated in 1923. The wooden streetscapes of old Edo were reduced to ashes, and the achievements of modernization were lost in the blink of an eye. The disaster affected around 1.5 million people, with approximately 105,000 dead or missing, and 370,000 homes damaged.

Today, it's challenging to find traces of that era, but one significant icon remains in Omotesando. The 'Dōjunkai Apartments,' constructed throughout Tokyo and Yokohama for post-earthquake recovery, were built with reinforced concrete. Among them, the Aoyama Apartments became a cultural icon and a lasting part of Omotesando's landscape.

However, due to aging, they were scheduled for demolition in 2003, giving way to Omotesando Hills. For those who have visited, you might have noticed a vintage-looking building standing next to the modern Omotesando Hills. This building is called the 'Dōjunkai-kan,' a reproduction of the original Dōjunkai Apartments using the original materials. It was conceived by the architect Tadao Ando, who also designed Omotesando Hills.

Ando strongly advocated for the importance of historical preservation to developers and local residents who desired modern development. This building stands as both a record of the earthquake's aftermath and a testament to the struggle of a great architect. It holds value in two distinct ways.

The beautiful and modern landscape filled with luxury brands may one day experience another disaster. Let's remember that. The probability of an M7-class earthquake directly beneath Tokyo in the next 30 years is 70%. I don't mean to frighten you, but Japan has lived with earthquakes for a long time.

While preparing for disasters while traveling might be challenging, I hope you'll consider making mental preparations just in case.